To frame this year’s expectation, we need to look backwards. Below is the same information but with the key metrics ranked, e.g. Mullins‘ 2020 Festival win percentage was his second best of the past five Festivals; it was his best of five Festivals on each of EW%, PRB, IV, and A/E. So we’ll use IV, PRB and A/E as way points to navigate to a conclusion; but against which period(s) should we measure performance?

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• Combining all runners priced 6/1 or shorter we have seen 182 winners from 807 (SR 22.6%) for a small BSP loss of £7.42 (ROI –0.9%).
• The going is Soft – Good to Soft in places on the chase course.
• It will be quick and there will be some trouble in transit for a few.
• She’s had four runs since that Arkle, winning twice and second twice.
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More generously, it is the best opportunity to extend the winning sequence. In terms of potential rivals, Royale Pagaille has looked a mud machine this winter, but that one has numerous other possible engagements, principally the Gold Cup itself. Moreover, the two horses are in the same Ricci ownership and will surely attempt to divide and conquer. He has blitzed the best of the Irish this season, and he did the same to the best of the British and Irish here last season over hurdles. Lousy puns aside, he won his beginners‘ chase in a canter before being merely pushed out to record a pair of Grade 1 successes in recognised trials, by three lengths and then eleven lengths from the talented Latest Exhibition. At an each way price, she is the final leg of this magnificently sneaky seven.

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That doesn’t mean Ireland doesn’t have a say in the race, though, as Irish-bred horses have been responsible for the last five winners and ten of the last 11 (exception French-bred). Willie also has Il Etait Temps, soundly enough beaten by GW at Limerick in that Faugheen but a winner either side, most recently in the G1 Irish Arkle, also at the DRF. He too wears a hood here and, though more likely to run his race than Gaelic Warrior, I feel, his best race is not as good as that one’s, and only a fine margin in front of Found A Fifty, just a neck back last month.

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Veneer of Charm wins the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle

All of the last 16 winners had raced at least once since the start of Newbury’s Coral Cup Handicap Chase meeting the previous November. Among the British challengers, Teeshan from Paul Nicholls‘ yard showed promise with a victory at Exeter last month, while Ben Pauling’s Sixmilebridge impressed on his stable debut at Sandown. Though primarily seen as a hurdling prospect for the future, Sixmilebridge shouldn’t be overlooked in this race. Willie Mullins fields the favourite, Jasmin De Vaux, who showcased promise with a victory at Naas on his stable debut in January.

• You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Ayr Racecourse section for links to these.
• The ground may ease again slightly with rain forecast before racing commences at 2.10.
• Assuming that all’s well after an absence of just on four months, he sets a high standard here and should be competitive in a higher grade than this Class 4 event in the future.
• A model of consistency, APT has yet to finish outside of the first three in 13 Rules starts.
• Shishkin is now unbeaten in seven completed starts, having fallen on his hurdling debut.
• If you’d had the proverbial crystal ball and been able to predict every front-runner at HQ since 2009, you’d have been on to a very good thing as you can see from the table below, taken from geegeez‘ Query Tool.

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Interesting, almost like they found improvement for the atmosphere of the Festival… In his sole chase effort before the last day fall, Haut En Couleurs had easily accounted for Gentleman De Mee and Mt Leinster, the former hacking up twice since, most recently in Grade 3 company at odds of 1/5. It is worth noting that five-year-olds have failed to win since their allowance was removed, though some of the fancied ones (Allmankind, Saint Calvados) have been given, erm, interesting rides from the front.

Altior joins the list of Cheltenham heroes with victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase

She was very impressive on Irish debut at Fairyhouse beating Zarak the Brave and backed it up at Leopardstown at Christmas before being narrowly beaten by Gala Marceau at the DRF. Lossiemouth was severely hampered at one stage and looked well beaten before staying on strongly to finish only 2.5 Lengths behind the winner. I’ve spoken historically about „the rule of two“, whereby we get past the notion that a single heavy ground win might have been in a very weak race or by some sort of fluke. Two wins affirms that a horse is definitely suited – or can at least handle – extreme going. Naturally, if the horse is two from five, it will be more compelling than if it’s two from 25! And, of course, as we should never tire of saying, the price makes the play.

Cheltenham Festival Open Grade 1 Micro System

However, I lean towards the Henry De Bromhead duo of Telmesomethinggirl and Lantry Lady. While Rachel Blackmore seems to prefer Telmesomethinggirl, Lantry Lady shows more potential for further improvement, making her the more intriguing option. 20 of the 24 winners this century have been aged 7-9yo but there’s been an 11yo winner in 2021, a couple of 10yo winners (2007 & 2010) plus a French-bred 6yo in 2018. The three winners before the turn of the century were all 10 & 11yo’s so I’m not sure age is too much of an issue for this race.

Cheltenham preview update

Let’s dive right into some of the horse racing bet types that might take your fancy. You also have the option of selecting the starting price, also listed as “SP”. This is the odds of the runner at the start of the race, and it will not always be the same as the odds that you see when you look at the site.

But he’s no bargain, especially if his jockey – presumably Rachael Blackmore though she has another option – allows others a head start. O’Faolains Boy set a fair but not searing tempo, aided and abetted by Smad Place, in 2016, the beneficiary of which was the handily-ridden Don Cossack. And in 2015, Coneygree made every yard under an inspired ride from Nico de Boinville. De Boinville’s measurement of pace there was brilliant, saving enough to repel a brace of Irish challengers up the hill to the line. In 2018, Native River won from Might Bite, the pair engaging in a ding-dong skirmish from flag fall; in theory, both should have wilted and been passed. This was definitely not a winner I could have found as it looked on paper beforehand that they’d have at it exactly as they did, an approach in this sort of cauldron which typically spells c-u-r-t-a-i-n-s.

Trainers

Most likely is that the top two in the betting will mark each other behind the rags, with Vauban expected to be ridden cold at the back of the field. It will be frenetic, due to the field size and the number of jockeys having their first ride of the week. The first of nine handicaps and I’ll tell you now that my thoughts will be (mercifully) brief. This race has been won by the home team exclusively since Dun Doire and Tony Martin wrested it away in 2006. They actually don’t run many – just three darts this year – and I’ll be fielding against them, perhaps carelessly. There looks to be plenty of early speed in this line up with each of Ha d’Or, Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon leading in their most recent three races.

Grade 1 Races

He’ll likely be a similar price on the day if it’s good to soft ground, and then might be worth a saver; he’d probably be opposable on softer. Meanwhile, more materially, the sweet spot is, well, any horse younger than ten. From micro representation this century, a six-year-old has won (Long Run, 2011), while the majority of winners are aged seven to nine, as are the majority of runners.

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The jockey of Presenting Percy, has now own at 13 successive Festivals. He lost his mother recently and paid her a glowing tribute for raising six kids when he was interviewed as he made his way to the enclosure. The Festival’s most prolific jockey has gone to hospital with a suspected broken leg. Mark Walsh rode Bleu Berry after Paul Townend, the stable jockey, switched to Max Dynamite which was due to be Ruby’s ride.

• In theory William Money is thrown-in racing of a 15lb lower mark than when winning over fences 2 days ago.
• While the more you know will generally enhance your chances of finding winners – and hence following this sport can give a lifetime of pleasure and achievement – even beginners can improve their odds by following a few simple rules.
• Le Breuil looked very impressive on latest start, with the form being sound.
• That said, such a sound bite implies he’ll want to go forward here and he is unlikely to be alone in that desire.
• A better question might be to ask which horses can put him under pressure, so let’s posit that one.
• No other trainer has more than two novice G1 wins in the past decade, excluding as we are the Bumper and Triumph Hurdle.

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A race that will probably play out in line with the market expectation of a duel between Jonbon and El Fabiolo. If El Fab’s jumping holds up, I think he’ll win, and if it doesn’t I think Jonbon will win. I don’t really see Dysart Dynamo sustaining his front-footed charge and prefer Saint Roi to travel round in his own time and pick up the each way pieces. Not especially a betting race if you haven’t already played, I don’t think. Olly Murphy runs two in the race, Chasing Fire and Strong Leader, and my preference of the pair is for the former. He’s unbeaten in a point, a bumper, and three hurdle races and, though untested in Graded company, he’s kicked to the kerb everything he’s faced hitherto.

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Among a clutch of lightly raced juveniles, Bolt Action, Kaasib and Paddy’s Day all merit a second look. A short-head Wolverhampton maiden victor in November, Fast Company’s son made his return for 2022 in the Listed Burradon Stakes on Newcastle’s All-Weather Championships Finals card in April. Simply register, place you £10 bet on horse racing and you will receive £30 in free bets. The four-year-old grey has improved this season, winning a Listed race at Doncaster and the Group 2 bet365 Mile at Sandown, while he was second to Audience in the Lockinge at Newbury last time out.

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The one who might still be a little on the fat side is Minella Indo. 20/1 bar these, the first of which is Champ, now ten and last seen winning well in a Grade 1 hurdle. His last chase sighting was when pulling up after only six fences in the Gold Cup a year ago. Connections are publicly pointing towards this gig but I wonder if he might go t’other way in a very open looking and winnable Stayers‘ Hurdle section. A test as unique as the Cheltenham Gold Cup makes it something of a specialist’s race. Best Mate famously reeled off a hat-trick of wins early in the century and, since then, both Kauto Star and Al Boum Photo have doubled up.

The race is open to both sexes with the Male runners having produced a total of 21 winners from a total of 476 runners whilst the Female runners have produced 0 winners from a total of 21 runners. Every year, this popular event creates an unmatchable buzz in Cheltenham, as well as the villages that frame it. On Gold Cup day, there’s a sense of celebration in the air as bars and restaurants spill out with revellers. Mill about long enough and you might catch a glimpse of famous trainers and jockeys weaving between the racecourse and town.

Sent off 10/3 favourite for the November edition, he was never put into the race; but he did run a little better in the October variant, finishing a place and four lengths behind Minella Indo. This has obviously been the plan all season but I’m not at all sure he can bring his A game when water wings are needed. There is little doubt in anyone’s mind that, prior to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival, Ballyburn brings the best novice form.

If you’d had the proverbial crystal ball and been able to predict every front-runner at HQ since 2009, you’d have been on to a very good thing as you can see from the table below, taken from geegeez‘ Query Tool. ‚4‘ signifies an early front runner, ‚3‘ a prominent racer early, ‚2‘ a midfield runner, and ‚1‘ a hold up type. This particular race was won by the unexposed, and still unbeaten – now in three races – Hickory, who was a class above his rivals. As the result shows, he was good enough to travel on the heels of the speed, while the placed horses came from far back, even though typically this course and distance favours front-runners (see the green blob above the pace map).

Gaillard du Mesnil is opposable at the prices in the NH Chase. Don’t think that race’s profile suits such a strong stayer any more. Churchstonewarrior could be a playable alternative – going slower could suit him. Mahler Mission ran a fair race (7th of 16) in last year’s Albert Bartlett and, though he was whacked in a novices‘ chase at Cheltenham early in the season, that was surely a sighter on ground much faster than ideal. More recently he’s won a beginners‘ and then ran a gallant second to Churchstonewarrior. The second possible in that context is I Like To Move It, whose Greatwood and Kingwell Hurdle wins have advertised his ‚dark horse‘ claims.

Nothing looks value at that sort of a price, but owner J P McManus has met his objective of getting to the Festival with a chance. He was a very smart juvenile hurdler and the Triumph winner in 2021. In the following season he was bested three times by Teahupoo at two mile trips before having a long (nearly two years) spell on the sidelines. Back this season as an older, stronger horse he’s won two of three chases, both ungraded. In between times, he was thumped in the G2 Florida Pearl over three miles.

A small bet on a race can be a thrilling way to enjoy the action. While the more you know will generally enhance your chances of finding winners – and hence following this sport can give a lifetime of pleasure and achievement – even beginners can improve their odds by following a few simple rules. That is why they have been the world’s favourite betting medium for hundreds of year – you really can study the form (see below) and use it to pick winners. Not getting any younger at the age of seven but looked at the peak of his powers when smashing the course record at Newbury last time. He’s proven on softer ground and will get this race run to suit with plenty of competition for the lead. Danny Tudhope is a brilliant hold up rider and he looks a worthy favourite.

They may look the same but horses, like human athletes, require certain conditions to produce their best. Usain Bolt may have been unbeatable over 100m, but he’d never have won a top race over a mile. Likewise, horses will have their own range of requirements, the two main ones being distance and ground. You can determine the conditions different horses like by looking at their past performances.

That said, plenty of owners and trainers are represented by multiple runners so they may send a ‚hare‘ forward to chase. He’s a very unsexy price but might still be value at around 1/3. I don’t really fancy Irish Point, who in my view would have been better placed in the Stayers‘ Hurdle even if his owner does have Teahupoo for that.

The ex-French four-year-old, who joined Karl Burke for the start of the year, travelled from Middleham to Newcastle on 16 March with a record of one win from 15 attempts. Will Buick’s partner dropped to handicap company for a valuable event on Sandown Park’s Coral-Eclipse undercard and lost little in defeat with a three-quarter-length second to Sinjaari. There is more to come on the fifth outing of Checkandchallenge’s promising career and he’s fancied to take the step back up in class in his stride.

If you’re John Butler or Mick Appleby – with the greatest respect to those genuinely fine exponents of their craft – you don’t have the luxury of a conveyor belt of million-pound yearlings lolloping into your barn annually. He has progressed all season, and even though he may have put in his poorest performance so far, he clearly has the profile to continue stepping up in distance on route to a very promising chasing career. He has a huge career ahead of him and the question now is, does he go chasing, or does he remain over hurdles with a route towards the 2022 Champion hurdle.

He is not a guaranteed runner, hence the insurance caveat of NRNB, but this race is looking less and less clear cut by the day. Easysland was expected to bolt up before flopping at the November meeting; he was then expected to race in France as a preparation but skipped that, too, so comes in off that solitary, below par, effort. He could easily bounce back but is not the ‚gimme‘ he looked going into the November meeting.

Skybet are paying EIGHT places on this race, and a couple of others are seven places deep. That gives us plenty of chances and the first name on the team sheet is Corach Rambler, whose run style lends itself to hitting the frame even without extended places! I’m slightly on weather watch with Oscar Elite, very much liking his chance on good to soft but less keen on softer.